The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran said that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz “is not linked” to ongoing negotiations with Oman and would only be possible if the United States accepts conditions set by Tehran. The statement was reported by the Iranian agency Tasnim, quoting the Guards’ spokesman Hossein Mohebbi, and reiterates Tehran’s emphasis on its decisive role in the area.
The declaration comes after a U.S. official had reported “progress” the previous day in talks between Iran and Oman that could lead to a reopening of the strait, an important artery for global energy trade. The two accounts highlight a political discrepancy: Tehran insists any solution is contingent on bilateral conditions with Washington, while U.S. sources view negotiations with neighboring Oman as a potential operational channel to restore maritime traffic.
The move by Tehran comes against a backdrop that reports say amounts to a de facto blockade of passage and an Iranian intention to impose tariffs or forms of control on transit—measures the United States has repeatedly opposed. Before the open conflict between Washington and Tehran—described in reconstructions as ongoing for about five months—the Strait of Hormuz was an open channel conveying a significant share of globally traded oil and gas.
Tehran’s interest in “institutionalizing” a management role over the waterway separating Iran from Oman has raised legal and commercial concerns: formalizing controls or tolls would turn a route long considered international into an element of de facto sovereignty. Analysts quoted by agencies note that for Iran the stakes are less about immediate revenue than about confirming a capacity for influence and guaranteeing its strategic security.
At the same time, tensions have spilled onto commercial routes. The United Arab Emirates reported an attack that allegedly targeted a tanker owned by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) while transiting the strait: according to Abu Dhabi’s foreign ministry it was a missile attack, with no casualties. The allegation adds gravity to operational restrictions already reported by maritime operators and insurers.
The chaos in the Gulf is also affecting neighboring producing countries. Iraq, meanwhile negotiating with Iran a mechanism to allow exports of its oil, has confirmed talks but has not yet implemented any operational solution. Basim Mohammed, Iraq’s oil minister, noted the country produces about 2.7 million barrels per day and that current exports are limited to a lower capacity—between 1.5 and 1.75 million barrels per day—for technical and security reasons.
On the Yemeni front, the situation remains tense. Houthi rebels have intensified attacks in Marib province, the scene of recurring clashes with pro-government forces: sources report civilian and military casualties on multiple occasions, with numbers varying by day and incident. The resumption of hostilities follows the erosion of a 2022 truce and further complicates regional stability, also because the rebels receive political and military support from allies who have vested ties with Tehran.
The sum of these dynamics—blocked passage, attacks on commercial vessels, uncertain negotiations with Oman and pressure on third states such as Iraq—could have concrete effects on energy markets: higher insurance premiums for transit, route deviations, and price volatility if the export capacity of major suppliers is disrupted for a prolonged period. Experts and observers are also monitoring the impact on global supply chains dependent on the oil and gas that transited through Hormuz.
From a diplomatic perspective, Iran’s position complicates the prospect of a rapid agreement: if Tehran conditions reopening on Washington’s approval, negotiations move onto a multilateral field with deep political implications for U.S. administrations. Sources cited in reports also note external political interventions, with several regional countries seeking mediation roles or balances to protect their own commercial flows.
Many questions remain unresolved. It is unclear what specific “conditions” Iran would deem acceptable to Washington or what technical mechanisms are being discussed with Oman to manage the strait. It is also unknown whether any agreement would establish transit tariffs or what security guarantees would be required of foreign vessels.
In the absence of independent verification, the details of reported attacks remain difficult to confirm fully: the precise number of casualties in Yemen and the direct responsibility for incidents against commercial ships are contested and require further corroboration.
Because of its geo-economic centrality, the Hormuz issue remains a point of high international tension: a matter that concerns not only Tehran and Muscat, but the balance among the United States, Gulf states, and global economic operators. Any operational development will require technical transparency and political decisions that in the coming weeks will determine the concrete impact on routes and energy markets.